What comes to mind when you picture America's most violent neighborhood? A high-rise tenement building, a Cabrini-Green-style slum rife with drug dealers and thugs? A new study by NeighborhoodScout.com shows that's not the case at all.
In 2013, the country's most violent neighborhoods generally contain single-family homes or small apartment units. Many buildings are abandoned. The residents are poor, and often in single-parent households.
It was a pattern that came up repeatedly when NeighborhoodScout, a real-estate neighborhood search website, decided to survey the 25 most dangerous neighborhoods in America. Using dozens of computer models, the team behind NeighborhoodScout analyzed FBI data from 17,000 local law enforcement agencies to find the specific neighborhoods in America with the highest predicted rates of violent crime.
They say all real estate is local, and NeighborhoodScout drilled down deep into cities and towns to find the specific census tract areas -- sometimes just a scattering of blocks -- that had the highest rates of homicide, forcible rape, armed robbery and aggravated assault.
The results will surprise you. And they can be important to follow, because your home is an investment -- perhaps the biggest one your family will ever make. A crime surge, even a few miles away across town, could hurt the value of that nest egg you've so carefully tended to.
Curiously, New York, Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and other large cities are missing from NeighorhoodScout's list. In fact, the entire western half of the country doesn't show up at all. But neighborhoods in seemingly benign Tulsa, Okla., and Spartanburg, S.C., make an appearance.
The lesson here is not to stereotype a whole city, says Andrew Schiller of NeighborhoodScout. "There is more variation in crime within most cities than between cities," he tells. "The picture of the most violent neighborhoods in America is a changing one."
Neighborhood: Washington Park
Chicago makes four appearances on this list, and it's no wonder. The city saw a jaw-dropping 515 homicides last year -- about 19 for every 100,000 residents, according to RedEye.
Crime in Washington Park has been falling over the years, reports The Chicago Tribune, but the area has seen 13 robberies and four assaults in the last month alone.
Found within zip code: 60637
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 65.77
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 15
Neighborhood: Near Northwest Springdale
You wouldn't think of this Bible Belt city -- home to Oral Roberts University and one of the highest percentage of churchgoers in the country -- as a hotbed for violent crime. But the red flags went up at NeighborhoodScout with one area southwest of the intersection of the Cherokee and Gilcrease expressways.
There's a 15.4% real estate vacancy rate in this neighborhood.
Found within zip codes: 74106, 74110
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 66.88
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 15
Neighborhood: Downtown, near the intersection of St. Paul Avenue and Walnut Street
Sadly, this neighborhood in Memphis borders a high school. But the Booker T. Washington High School has made incredible strides in the last several years, going from a 55% graduation rate in 2007 to 81.6% in 2010. The accomplishment was so significant that President Obama delivered the commencement speech at the school's 2011 graduation.
Found within zip codes: 38126
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 67.26
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 15
Neighborhood: Columbus Square and parts of Near North Riverfront and Carr Square
This neighborhood of St. Louis includes most of the Columbus Square district.
Found within zip codes: 63106, 63102, 63101
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 67.75
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 15
Neighborhood: Northeast of the intersection of East Broadway Avenue and Ingram Boulevard.
Nearly a quarter of this neighborhood's households are run by single mothers, according to NeighborhoodScout, and nearly three-quarters of the children in the area live in poverty.
Found within zip code: 72301
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 68.9
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 15
Neighborhood: North Indianapolis
The neighborhood has a vacancy rate of more than 39%, and a large portion of residents are active in the military. It's one of the lowest-income neighborhoods in America, according to NeighborhoodScout.
Found within zip code: 46208
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 69.02
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 14
Neighborhood: North of the intersection of East Atherton Road and South Dort Highway
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder recently called Flint "probably the toughest place in Michigan" for a police officer to work.
Flint's police officers patrol an extremely dangerous city -- it had the highest rate of violent crime of any large U.S. city in 2011 -- and must also contend with severe budget reductions that have docked pay and cut benefits.
Found within zip code: 48507
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 70.05
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 14
Neighborhood: North of the Waverly Place Historic District
This is a very poor neighborhood, with an average per capita income lower than 98.4% of the rest of the United States. It stands out to NeighborhoodScout because it also has a greater concentration of residents who live alone, with a single occupant in about 45% of the households.
Found within zip code: 37203
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 70.59
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 14
Neighborhood: Directly northeast of the North Indianapolis district listed at No. 20.
This area expands out from the intersection of North Meridian Street and East 32nd Street, and includes the Children's Museum of Indianapolis. It also has more same-sex couples living together than 98.3% of the rest of the country.
Found within zip codes: 46208, 46205
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 72.71
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 14
Neighborhood: North Auburn Gresham
There are several reasons for Chicago's high violent crime rate. Guns are cheap and readily available. There's no Level I trauma center in the city's dangerous South Side. An overwhelming number of residents are poor, and too many are unemployed.
Found within zip code: 60620
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 73.05
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 14
Neighborhood: Centered at the intersection of Dowling and McGowen streets
Houston's first and only appearance on the list is for this neighborhood near downtown, directly south of the intersection of the South and Gulf freeways. The neighborhood stands out to NeighborhoodScout partly because it has more sales and service workers than nearly any other neighborhood in the country. The area also has a very high concentration of studio apartments and other small living areas.
Found within zip codes: 77004, 77003
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 75.89
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 13
Neighborhood: Northwest of Kishwaukee Street and 15th Avenue
Forbes put Rockford on its list of America's most miserable cities last year, citing the area's high tax rate and crime rate. The magazine also said that Rockford's proximity to Chicago "makes it attractive as a waypoint for drug couriers."
The Rockford Register Star tried to dispute that, citing five residents who said they were definitely not miserable. But there's no getting around the fact that violent crime has its place in parts of the city.
The particular neighborhood northwest of Kishwaukee Street and 15th Avenue has low incomes and high vacancy rates -- which fits the pattern for nearly all of NeighborhoodScout's most violent areas.
Found within zip code: 61104
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 77.6
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 13
Neighborhood: North Lawndale
Crime seems to be trending down in North Lawndale, according to The Chicago Tribune.
No one was murdered there in the last month, though there were 17 homicides in the last year. However, there were 92 thefts, 24 burglaries and one arson in the neighborhood over the last month.
Found within zip code: 60623
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 80.17
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 12
Neighborhood: Fountain Park
This neighborhood has more residents of African and Sub-Saharan African ancestry than nearly any other place in America, according to NeighborhoodScout. But only about 2% of residents speak primarily African languages at home.
Found within zip codes: 63113, 63108
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 82.76
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 12
Neighborhood: Near Gaston Park
This area is particularly noteworthy because its residents have such a long commute to work, according to NeighborhoodScout. About 17% of the neighborhood's commuters travel more than an hour to work each way -- much higher than in most of America.
Found within zip code: 38126
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 82.91
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 12
Neighborhood: Near the southeast Cathedral District
Saginaw has been working for years on renovating the Cathedral District, which has hundreds of abandoned parcels, according to The Saginaw News.
The city wants to demolish some buildings and renovate ones that can be salvaged. There are properties with promise, which was selling for a mere $25,000. The area that NeighborhoodScout zeroed in on is home to mostly low-income residents who did not go to college; about 96% of the residents in the area do not have a four-year college degree.
Found within zip code: 48601
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 85.64
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 12
Neighborhoods: Joyland and parts of High Point, South Atlanta and Lakewood Heights
Atlanta can take comfort in the fact that only one of its neighborhoods appears among NeighborhoodScout's top 25 most dangerous. That's down from four neighborhoods in 2010, the last time the company compiled this list.
Found within zip code: 30315
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 86.14
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 12
Neighborhood: Woodside
About 70% of the children in Greenville's Woodside neighborhood live in poverty, an extraordinarily high percentage, according to NeighborhoodScout. And there are more single-mother households here than in 98.1% of the country.
Found within zip code: 29611
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 86.38
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 12
Neighborhood: Barton-McFarland
Four Detroit neighborhoods rank among NeighborhoodScout's top seven most violent areas in the country.
Found within zip code: 48204
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 90.82
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 11
Neighborhood: Sunnyside
According to the city of Houston, Sunnyside is a historically African-American neighborhood that is becoming more diverse in its population.
Residents living just north of this area identified by NeighborhoodScout awoke to gunfire in March. Several shots left a 38-year-old man dead in the middle of the street. "They shoot around here all the time, you can't be scared, you just got to be aware," one neighbor told the KTRK television news station.
Found within zip code: 77051
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 91.27
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 11
Neighborhood: Washington Heights
This area is extremely poor -- in fact, the average income here is lower than in 99.9% of all U.S. neighborhoods. About 81% of the children in this neighborhood live in poverty, according to NeighborhoodScout, and about half of the households don't own a car at all.
Found within zip code: 29306
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 96.55
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 10
Neighborhood: Northeast Auburn Gresham
The Auburn Gresham neighborhood has its share of boarded-up shops and foreclosed homes.
Just a few streets down from the area identified by NeighborhoodScout, a 13-year-old boy was shot twice in his back last year while riding a bicycle down the street. He was in stable condition at the hospital after the shooting.
Found within zip code: 60620
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 116.56
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 9
Neighborhood: Between Ravendale and LaSalle College Park
This area is nearly the opposite of Spartanburg's Washington Heights neighborhood when it comes to car ownership. About 40% of the households here have four or more cars -- more cars per household than in 96% of the country. The vacancy rate in this neighborhood is about 30%.
Found within zip codes: 48213, 48205
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 123.93
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 8
Neighborhood: Islandview
How bad is this neighborhood? Just a few streets down from the area highlighted by NeighborhoodScout, a 3,300-square-foot property in foreclosure sold for just $800.
That's down from $70,000 in 2002.
Found within zip code: 48207
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 145.29
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 7
Neighborhood: East of Barton-McFarland
One of the more devastating events of the last year in this neighborhood was the closure of the public library, says Father Theodore Parker, the pastor at St. Cecilia's Rectory. His church is a stone's throw from the area identified by NeighborhoodScout as the most dangerous neighborhood in America.
The city closed the library in November, taking away a place where children took remedial reading and math classes and where adults used the public computers to apply for jobs. "The library is just another sign of the health of the city, really," he said.
But in a city filled with gutted and ransacked buildings, the library has for the most part stayed intact. Perhaps even the looters have a respect for the services once provided there.
Found within zip code: 48204
Violent crime rate (per 1,000): 149.48
Chances of becoming a victim here (in one year): 1 in 7
Anyone willing to bet against these areas all vote Democrat?
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